• Landing Slider

    Merchant Forecast is a leading
    independent research provider for institutional investors in the retail and consumer sector

    See what we do

  • Landing Slider

    Retailers evaluating other retailers on the ground generate actionable ideas

    See our methodology

  • Landing Slider

    Research that comes
    from a large group
    of core retailers

    See our coverage

What We Do

Merchant Forecast is a leading independent research provider for institutional investors in the retail and consumer sector. Our clients are an exclusive list of the nation’s largest and most respected mutual funds, hedge funds, investment managers and private equity funds.

The M4 Report

In-depth focus on four companies per week. Tracks key drivers like sales, traffic, inventory, promotions and pricing. Takes a view on management quality and delivers M4’s clear view on the outlook for the company. Report includes analysis of macro trends and quick data points on other retailers.

    • customicons_03

      Mall Metrics – Weekly

      Flash view of key indicators across M4’s core 35 retail names. M4 grades each company A to D and updates weekly to provide its most succinct judgment across the sector. Includes year-over-year promotional posture and depth of those promotions.

    • customicons_07

      Shopping Bag Count – Monthly

      Monthly read on what the shopping bags are saying. Field team members identify the first 30 shopping bags they see; results are aggregated by store (excluding department stores). This simple yet powerful indicator – with seven years of back data – has proven to be predictive of shifts in market share and overall sales trends.

    • customicons_09

      Luxury Report – Quarterly

      Qualitative analysis of bookings and trends in the luxury sector, by brand. Both private and public companies are covered in comprehensive detail. Color, judgment and insight from one of the most seasoned merchants in the luxury space.

Custom Research

M4′s field team can provide extensive reach (up to 200 locations nationwide) for customized research projects and exclusive content on diverse topics, including management team evaluations, overseas quotas, manufacturing and more. Clients receive detailed findings and interpretation (with follow-up phone calls), plus exclusive use of the research.

We get creative: if the company you are looking at has physical locations our team can cover it. We have done custom projects for clients on companies as diverse as Tractor Supply Company, Party City and Panera Bread. Our national team of retailers is on the ground ready to answer your questions.

whatewedo_sidebar_03

Specialized Services

In-depth focus on four companies per week. Tracks key drivers like sales, traffic, inventory, promotions and pricing. Takes a view on management quality and delivers M4's clear view on the outlook for the company. Report includes analysis of macro trends and quick data points on other retailers.

  • customicons_12

    Mall Tours

    M4's senior merchants take clients on regular walking tours of a regional mall and provide expert insight into how retailers are executing their individual strategies. The tours are one-on-one events and are available only to our clients.
  • customicons_16

    Back To School / Holiday Coverage

    During these two key selling periods M4 hosts weekly conference calls with clients. M4's senior merchants analyze trends and provide company-by-company commentary.
  • customicons_20

    Idea Dinners

    Clients meet quarterly with a selection of top merchants and designers in small-group informal settings.
  • customicons_23

    Access to Senior Analysts

    Clients receive unlimited support from M4's senior analysts. The M4 team helps clients interpret reports, assess opportunities, test invest- ment theses and structure custom research. Clients can specify how they want to be covered and with what frequency.
  • customicons_26

    Focus Groups

    Clients can commission customized focus groups. M4 assembles the customer group (e.g., juniors, moms, college kids, teens) and leads the discussion while the client observes from behind one-way glass. The client picks the topic, questions and companies or brands. M4 delivers a full report with findings and interpretation.
whatewedo_sidebar_06

Methodology

M4 has built an ever-growing proprietary field team of over 150 retailers in 90 malls around the country who complete weekly questionnaires on activity in their mall stores (although never on their own stores). M4's senior merchant team analyzes the results and generates actionable ideas at the company and sector levels, with color and judgment.

M4 is in the malls every day so you don't have to be, with retail professionals uniquely qualified to assess the environment and spot significant shifts. This unique methodology, combining eyewitness observation with statistical analysis, provides a high degree of confidence.

No one can evaluate a retailer
better than another retailer

methodology_woman

Core Coverage

Abercrombie & Fitch AEO
American Eagle AEO
Ascena ASNA
Bath & Body Works LB
Buckle BKE
Build-a-Bear Workshop BBW
Burlington BURL
Carter's CRI
Chico's CHS
Coach TPR
Crocs CROX
Deckers DECK
Dillard's DDS
DSW DBI
Express EXPR
Finish Line FINL
Five Below FIVE
Foot Locker FL
Fossil FOSL
Francesca's FRAN
Gap Inc. GPS
Genesco GCO
G-III Apparel GIII
Guess GES
Hanes Brands HBI
J.Jill JILL
JCPenney JCP
Kate Spade KATE
Kohl's KSS
Levi Strauss LEVI
lululemon athletica LULU
Macy's Inc. M
Men's Wearhouse TLRD
Michael Kors CPRI
New York & Co. RTW
Nordstrom JWN
Oxford Industries OXM
Pacific Sunwear
Phillips-Van Heusen PVH
PINK LB
Restoration Hardware RH
Ralph Lauren RL
Ross Stores ROST
Sears Holdings Corp. SHLD
Signet Jewelers SIG
Skechers SKX
Steve Madden SHOO
TJ Maxx TJX
Target TGT
The Children's Place PLCE
Tiffany & Co. TIF
Tilly's TLYS
Ulta ULTA
Under Armour UA
Urban Outfitters URBN
Vera Bradley VRA
VF Corp. VFC
Victoria's Secret LB
Williams-Sonoma WSM
Zumiez ZUMZ

Project Capabilities Outside Core

Beauty
Coty Inc. COTY
e.l.f. Cosmetics ELF
Elizabeth Arden REV
Revlon REV
Broadlines
Hudson’s Bay Company HBC
Lord & Taylor HBC
Party City PRTY
Saks HBC
Food & Beverage
B&G Foods BGS
BJ’s Restaurants BJRI
Brinker International EAT
Burger King Worldwide BKW
Cheesecake Factory CAKE
Chipotle Mexican Grill CMG
Darden Restaurants DRI
Del Frisco’s DFRG
Dunkin’ Brands Group DNKN
Fiesta Restaurant Group FRGI
Kroger KR
McDonald’s Corporation MCD
Noodles & Company NDLS
Popeye’s QSR
Red Robin RRGB
Ruth’s Hospitality Group RUTH
Sonic Corp. SONC
Sprouts Farmers Market SFM
Starbucks Corporation SBUX
United Natural Foods UNFI
Vitamin Shoppe VSI
Wendy’s WEN
Whole Foods AMZN
Yum! Brands YUM
Footwear
adidas ADS:GR
Asics 7936:JP
Caleres CAL
Nike NKE
Sam Edelman CAL
Shoe Carnival SCVL
Wolverine WWW
Hardlines
Advance Auto Parts AAP
AutoZone AZO
Best Buy BBY
Home Depot HD
Lowe’s LOW
Lumber Liquidators LL
Monro Muffler Brake MNRO
Office Depot ODP
O’Reily Automotive ORLY
Sleep Number SNBR
Tractor Supply Co. TSCO
Home Goods
At Home HOME
Bed Bath & Beyond BBBY
Floor & Decor FND
Kirkland’s KIRK
Michael’s MIK
Pier 1 Imports PIR
The Container Store TSC
Tuesday Morning TUES
Luxury
Brunello Cucinelli BC:IM
Burberry BRBY:LN
Christian Dior CDI:EN
Ferragamo SFER:IM
Hermès RMS:FP
Kering KER:FP
LVMH MC:FP
Moncler Monc:IM
Movado MOV
Prada 1913:HK
Richemont CFR:SW
TOD’S TOD:IM
Manufacturers
Champion HBI
Esslior Luxottica EL:FP
Fruit of the Loom BRK
Li & Fung 494:HK
Off-Price
Big Lots BIG
Costco COST
Dollar General DG
Dollar Tree DLTR
Family Dollar DLTR
Stage Stores SSI
Stein Mart SMRT
Private
aeropostle
Aldo
Barneys
Bravo’s Brio
Buffalo Wild Wings
Cabela’s
Charming Charlie
Einstein Noah
Forever 21
Heely’s
Hot Topic
J Crew
Kellwood Company
Love Culture
Nieman Marcus
Panera Bread Company
Perry Ellis
Petco
PetSmart
Safeway
Spencer’s
Sur La Table
Talbots
The Fresh Market
True Religion
Tumi
Yankee Candle
Speciality Retail
Activision Blizzard Inc. ATVI
Anthropologie URBN
Christopher & Banks
Citi Trends CTRN
Columbia Sportswear COLM
Destination Maternity DEST
Dick’s Sporting Goods DKS
Fast Retailing 9983:JP
GameStop GME
Gildan Activewear GIL
H&M HMB:SS
Hasbro Inc. HAS
HSN Inc. QRTEA/B
Inditex ITX:SM
Inter Parfums IPAR
JAKKS Pacific JAKK
Jos. A. Bank TLRD
Levi Strauss LEVI
Mattel MAT
Pandora PNDORA:DC
Primark ABF:LN
Uniqlo 9983:JP
Vince VNCE

Our Founder

team_03

Dan Hess

Founder & CEO
Dan has covered the retail sector for institutional clients since 2001 and has built a strong reputation in the buy-side community. He is considered an expert and thought leader in the retail space, and is well-versed on the operational, merchandising and financial aspects of the space. Dan does not make buy/sell recommendations, but he does help clients understand what is happening in real time from every angle, whether it’s bottom-up or top-down. Since founding Merchant Forecast in 2001, he has developed a strong track record of predicting key inflection points in the industry. Merchant Forecast has industry-high renewal percentages because Dan and his team add value by sticking to what they know: retailing. Many of the nation’s top institutional investors count on Dan as a key resource and on Merchant Forecast as a critical part of their investment process.
Before founding Merchant Forecast, Dan spent 14 years in senior level retail merchandising roles, including Director of Marketing for Macy’s East and a member of Federated’s Merchandising Steering Committee. Prior to starting Merchant Forecast, Dan founded Body & Soul, a specialty intimate apparel chain catering to urban ethnic consumers, which was sold to Urban Brands Inc. Dan holds a BA from the University of Pennsylvania.

Compliance

Merchant Forecast LLC continues to abide by a strict code of conduct and Compliance Manual to ensure compliance with all applicable laws, rules and regulations and the highest level of business ethics and standards.

All retail industry information attained during the course of its independent real-time research is not influenced or obtained by the use of any deceptive or otherwise unlawful business practices or devices, including the use of insider or material non-public information.

Merchant Forecast LLC continues its historic policy of not engaging current retail management personnel for information regarding their employer or affiliates of their employer in the preparation of its M4 Report and/or custom research reports and does not provide nor receive compensation to/from the retailers or entities covered in its reports.

compliance_03

Contact

Send a Message

Contact Info

41 E. 11th Street
11th Floor
New York, NY 10003

P/ 212.774.6021
E/ info@m4cast.com